Author Topic: Oversupply of oil in our world and our ship spotting can prove it!  (Read 13720 times)

Offline Oldkayaker

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What better proof of an oversupply or abundance of oil then to see the same tankers move, within a month's period of time, from local refinery port to local refinery port trying to offload their oil; and, without returning to any known oil production area, e.g., Saudi Arabia  or other oil production area.
>:(

Offline Phil English

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Re: Oversupply of oil in our world and our ship spotting can prove it!
« Reply #1 on: April 25, 2012, 08:24:28 AM »
What, you are joking?

Oil supply has tightened considerably since the Libyan conflict. The imminent cessation of Iranian supply due to US/UN sanctions will further exacerbate. Hence the price of crude has rocketed and the tanker freight market has collapsed.

These are anxious times for tanker owners who are struggling to find business in a volatile market. Global crude trade increased by only 3.9% between 2009-2011, whilst the Global tanker fleet increased by 10.5%

These are the facts
Brgds
Phil

BobS

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Re: Oversupply of oil in our world and our ship spotting can prove it!
« Reply #2 on: April 25, 2012, 08:53:51 AM »
The tanker VOIDOMATIS, whose movements give rise to this thread, spends much of its time, I believe, carrying 'dirty' products rather than crude oil. It would therefore be more likely to be carrying feedstocks, such as part-refined crude, or perhaps heavy fuel oil refined at one refinery that is to be stored at and distributed from another. Currently, Benicia refinery processes domestic crude (presumably supplied by pipeline) from the San Joaquin Valley in California. It also takes crude from the Alaska North Slope, along with foreign sour crudes. Assuming that neither Benicia nor Martinez can accommodate VLCCs, crude from Alaska and foreign oilfields may have been transshipped either somewhere offshore or via another refinery.
There is certainly no oversupply of oil in the world, as Phil has pointed out. Also, tanker operations and the oil market may not be so simple and straightforward as might seem to the casual observer.
« Last Edit: April 25, 2012, 02:25:30 PM by Bob Scott »

Offline Oldkayaker

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Re: Oversupply of oil in our world and our ship spotting can prove it!
« Reply #3 on: April 27, 2012, 12:14:28 AM »
 ;D Well, the data says otherwise and tankers shopping for refineries to take their oil shows actual situation.  But, you can buy the speculators cover if you like.

Offline Oldkayaker

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Re: Oversupply of oil in our world and our ship spotting can prove it!
« Reply #4 on: April 27, 2012, 12:32:22 AM »
Nope, it is not a simple matter.  Lots of lighterage and cartage operations going on to move oil out of the tanker into other refineries.

British Laurel for example:

 2012 April 23rd, 00:01:06 UTC   Benicia Anchorage
2012 April 21st, 15:00:15 UTC   Benicia
2012 April 18th, 13:30:06 UTC   El Segundo
2012 February 28th, 18:00:01 UTC   Balboa Panama
2012 February 16th, 15:00:01 UTC   Long Beach
2012 January 29th, 07:00:34 UTC   Uswc Lighterage
2012 January 27th, 01:00:02 UTC   Long Beach
2012 January 25th, 03:00:01 UTC   Uswc Lighterage
2012 January 21st, 20:00:13 UTC   Long Beach
2012 January 16th, 18:00:20 UTC   Uswc Lighterage

going to Benicia, Long Beach etc. numerous times to off load oil.

Offline Paul Bradshaw

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Re: Oversupply of oil in our world and our ship spotting can prove it!
« Reply #5 on: April 27, 2012, 12:36:43 AM »
Something absolutely stinks about the oil business! How does the fact that tar sands are not viable unless the price is kept above a certian level, fit in to the mix?

Offline Phil English

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Re: Oversupply of oil in our world and our ship spotting can prove it!
« Reply #6 on: April 27, 2012, 08:13:22 AM »
What data do you refer to, Oldkayaker?

Are you involved in the oil business and do you have access to oil supply and trade statistics published by reliable industry sources?

Just curious.

Brgds
Phil

Offline CedricH

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Re: Oversupply of oil in our world and our ship spotting can prove it!
« Reply #7 on: April 27, 2012, 08:47:15 AM »
Something absolutely stinks about the oil business! How does the fact that tar sands are not viable unless the price is kept above a certian level, fit in to the mix?

The price of oil has to be higher because it is so expensive and complicated to extract oil from sand.

For the rest I agree with Phil that there is certainly no oversupply of oil. I would rather say there is too much demand, certainly with the conflicts in the Middle East and economies like China and India requiring more oil every day.

Kind regards
Cedric
Photo admin for the Passenger Vessels, RO/RO, Ship Interiors and Vehicle Carriers categories

Offline Astra

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Re: Oversupply of oil in our world and our ship spotting can prove it!
« Reply #8 on: April 27, 2012, 09:49:25 AM »
Lack of oil is a question of demand and supply of oil. Currently there is no over-supply of oil. On the contrary, there is a shortage of oil. This can be read directly on the oil price and the fact, that many tanker owners, right now, are experiencing very difficult times - some are even struggling for their existence.

In 1999 the price of oil was around 10 USD / barrel. Today the oil price is around 120 USD / barrel ( Brent ). There are several reasons for this significant increase:

1). The recent increase ( 15 - 20 USD / barrel ), is primarily due to fear of an Israeli attack on Iran's nuclear facilities and Iran's threat to close the Hormuz Strait. Each day 17 million barrels of oil are passing this strait - equivalent to 20 pct. of global consumption.

2). Oil Peak: In the future the remaining oil may be increasingly difficult to extract.   It's a fact, since 1995 global oil production has barely been increased.

3). Iraq has problems with rebuilding its oil production.

4). Unrest and other problems in Libya.

5). Syria is out of the market.

6). Turmoil in both Yemen and Nigeria.

7). Increased demand for oil in the developing economies like China, India etc.

In the years to come, the demand for oil and the price of oil will likely increase. At some point, however, the threshold will be reached and changes in people's behaviour and  transition to other energy sources will reduce demand and lower prices - perhaps even make oil obsolete.

The Stone Age did not end because people ran out of stones - and the Oil Age will not end because people ran out of oil. ( Sheikh Yamani, Saudi Arabian oil minister 1962 - 1986 ).

Regards       

BobS

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Re: Oversupply of oil in our world and our ship spotting can prove it!
« Reply #9 on: April 27, 2012, 10:18:47 AM »
I see absolutely nothing remarkable or mysterious about the movements of BRITISH LAUREL!
Lightering from larger tankers that can't get into WCUSA oil harbours and perhaps sometimes delivering part-cargoes to different refineries. All perfectly normal ops and no grounds for any shock-horror/sensationalist conspiracy theories!

Offline Oldkayaker

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Re: Oversupply of oil in our world and our ship spotting can prove it!
« Reply #10 on: April 27, 2012, 05:05:19 PM »
 ;D Interesting observations. Thanks for your contributions.  We agree to disagree, for now.

Offline Robert Smith

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Re: Oversupply of oil in our world and our ship spotting can prove it!
« Reply #11 on: April 27, 2012, 05:06:45 PM »
I spent over 30 years in the industry and was a.o. responsible for tanker chartering and -operations in one of the world's largest oil trading companies. Oldkayaker probably has a fair knowledge of old kayaks, but I feel he's a layman as far as the intricacies of moving crude oil and oilproducts are concerned. Unless he has something sensible to say, I suggest we stop this thread.

Brgds,
Robert.

 >:(

Offline Allan RO

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Re: Oversupply of oil in our world and our ship spotting can prove it!
« Reply #12 on: April 27, 2012, 09:08:33 PM »
Hi all

The simple fact remains that the avalability of crude oil on the world market is largely controlled by OPEC.  It would be simple for them to crank up production from Saudi for example and the price of crude oil would fall.  Availability is kept tight so that prices are kept artificially high.  Speculators hold on to full tankers awaiting a specific price threshhold before they sell.   I monitor all shipping movements into Southampton, including the Esso Refinery at Fawley, and I can assure you that there are very few major imports from the Middle East.  By far the major supplies of crude oil into Esso are from North Sea oil fields and from various Russian terminals.  But the price of oil from these sources is still controlled by market forces.

I think you only have to look at various anchorages throughout the world to see how many crude oil tankers are looking for work.  We had a situation recently where three or four tankers, having discharged at Fawley, immediately went to anchorages awaiting further work.  The evidence I have seen suggests there is cetainly no oversupply at present.

Allan


Offline Oldkayaker

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Re: Oversupply of oil in our world and our ship spotting can prove it!
« Reply #13 on: April 27, 2012, 10:21:35 PM »
 ;D  Old and Onions...  :D  in agreement.

Offline Oldkayaker

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Re: Oversupply of oil in our world and our ship spotting can prove it!
« Reply #14 on: April 27, 2012, 10:26:34 PM »
 ;D  Saudi oil producers, in their own words, in their own documentary about their new drilling techniques, going horizontal in their oil fields, made it very clear that the selling price has to be at a certain level for them to afford to operate their new drilling techniques.

But, I am just a dumb outsider who reads and listens.

 

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