Rising sea level,s,,,those jokers are serious scientist's ?

[Captain Ted]

A prediction as below,,that sea levels may rise from 1-37 cm,,,
any "idiot" can make a prediction like that
no wonder that nobody believes anything on this matter



Ice discharge from Antarctica could contribute up to 37 centimeters to the global sea level rise within this century, a new study shows. For the first time, an international team of scientists provide a comprehensive estimate on the full range of Antarctica's potential contribution to global sea level rise based on physical computer simulations. Led by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, the study combines a whole set of state-of-the-art climate models and observational data with various ice models.

The results reproduce Antarctica's recent contribution to sea level rise as observed by satellites in the last two decades and show that the ice continent could become the largest contributor to sea level rise much sooner than previously thought.

"If greenhouse gases continue to rise as before, ice discharge from Antarctica could raise the global ocean by an additional 1 to 37 centimeters in this century already," says lead author Anders Levermann. "Now this is a big range

[Tuomas Romu]

I don't see any problem with the figures. When you combine a number of different simulation models, each with their own uncertainties and variations, you can get that kind of answer.

However, I do see a risk that they will not be taken seriously because of the answer which may sound ridiculous to a layman. Also, I wonder if instead of 1-37 cm the actual result was 19 +/- 18 cm...

[Captain Ted]

That,s like that Hurricane predicter Prof Gray I think at the University of Arizona
he predicted one time the numbers of named storms correct and was 15 years and more a hero
until peoples realized it was pure luck. I predict since years between 13-18 named storms and I am 60-70 % right. Alas nobody called me expert or push government grants on me,,,guess I don,t sell myself too good :-((

[Tuomas Romu]

The good thing with science is that it does not really matter if the results sound a bit silly to a layman. What if the result had been 18 +/- 19 cm? "OMG WTF!? Does this mean that melting of the glaciers will lower the sea level by 1 cm?!"

There's a difference in pulling numbers out of your hat (Stetson-Harrison method) and having a calculation model behind them.

[Kelvin Davies]

I recently watched a documentary on TV which showed how the number & strength of hurricanes has decreased as atmospheric pollution has increased.
Atmospheric pollution is blamed for global warming and the "experts" are always trying to drive the world to get rid of atmospheric pollution.
Oh dear! If they get their way, hurricanes will increase in number and strength. So it's a case of damned if you do and damned if you don't.
Sort of "pick your problem; would you like the sea level to rise by a centimetre or have more death and destruction from hurricanes"?

[itsfoto]

How about this:
 
"Ice sheets contain enormous quantities of frozen water. If the Greenland Ice Sheet melted, scientists estimate that sea level would rise about 6 meters (20 feet). If the Antarctic Ice Sheet melted, sea level would rise by about 60 meters (200 feet)."

(According to the National Snow and Ice Data Center, Colorado)
see http://nsidc.org/cryosphere/quickfacts/icesheets.html

I find that kind of math quite unfathomable. I wish I could make it work in favour of my bank account.

cheers

Uwe

[Captain Ted]

I,d guess that the main "wild" numbers and theorethical calculations a designed to increase
awareness,,, NOT to make peoples change but that wilder the numbers that more money grants flow from the governments and therefore keeping mostly research centers at Universities healthy and alive.
Whatever it is,,,a statement from " serious scentists that it can rise from 1-37cm is in my opinion not scientific but a shot into the blank.

[Tuomas Romu]

I find that kind of math quite unfathomable.

Why?

The world

[Tuomas Romu]

Whatever it is,,,a statement from " serious scentists that it can rise from 1-37cm is in my opinion not scientific but a shot into the blank.

This is exactly why I would hate presenting scientific results to the general public, especially those from long-term simulations. People simply don't understand why you can't come up with an exact, easily understandable result.

By the way, here's an excerpt from the abstract of the paper, with the result you presented underlined:

The median of the additional ice loss for the 21st century is computed to 0.07 m (66% range: 0.02

[Captain Ted]

@Tuomas
you seem missing the point
a figure 1-37cam leaves anything open,,in other words never mind what reality might be in one hundred years those scientists at that time can say,,you see our predecessors were already right.

I , as layman can also say than,,,1-150 cm,,and in 100 years hence,when it might be 30cm, I am heralded as a prophet. The gap 1-37cm is a rather wide gap...if they would say it will be 28-32,, I would say,,aha,,good scientific works,, when I see 1-37cm,,I don,t see any scientific work,,at least not good one

[Kelvin Davies]

The Antarctic ice sheet is in 2 parts, East & West.
The East part is on land, while the West is in the water.
So, if all the West sheet melted it would make zero difference to sea levels.
Recent measurements show the East ice sheet is getting thicker/heavier, while the West ice sheet is the one that seems to be melting.
So, as only the East ice sheet is the one that matters, it is hard to see what the mad scientists are bleating about.
The Greenland sheet is different, as it is all on land and if it all melted the sea level would rise by 7 or 8m. Panic!
However, gradually rising temperatures have resulted in increased snowfall on Greenland.
That becomes a zero sum game. The warmer it gets, the more it melts and more snowfall returns the snow/ice to the land mass.
But, if we are to believe every word these scientists throw out at us, then keep an eye on the sky. It is probably about to fall in!

[Captain Ted]

hi kelvin

thanks info and comments :-)
will kepp my hard head on when next time crossing the Atlantic or even better call Asterix
and Obelix for help !!!!!!